Crude Oil prices prediction for week August 15-19 2011

Crude Oil prices prediction for week August 15-19 2011 : Crude oil prices were little changed last week, as pessimism dominated earlier in the week amid the huge uncertainty that continued to surround markets, where slowing economic activities in the United States sparked concerns the world’s largest economy is on its way to a double dip recession, while mounting fears from the European debt crisis boosted demand for lower yielding assets, which put crude oil prices under pressure and pushed prices to the lowest level since September 2010.



Nonetheless, crude oil prices rebounded to the upside after data from the United States signaled that economic activities continued to grow although at a slower pace, since many traders fear the U.S. economy is heading into another recession.



Meanwhile, the EIA report showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels below median estimates, which allowed crude oil prices to rebound to the upside later in the week.



Rising pessimism in global financial markets should put crude oil prices under more pressure over the coming period, where traders are concerned the U.S. economy is heading into a double dip recession, and since the United States is the world’s largest consumer of oil, demand for oil will fall, and that continues to weigh down on prices, while concerns from the European debt crisis will also contribute to the anticipated bearish trend over the coming period.



Highlights for this week that will probably affect the Crude Oil direction are:



Monday August 15:

The U.S. economy will start the data this week with the Empire Manufacturing for August at 12:30 which is expected to rebound to 0.50 from -3.76.



At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will release the TIC flows for June which surely were affected by the start of the debt debate before it intensified in July.



Tuesday August 16:

Germany will start the GDP day at 06:00 GMT with the expected slowing pace of expansion into the second quarter with 0.5% from 1.5% recorded in the first quarter.



The GDP data from the euro zone is due at 09:00 GMT for the second quarter and surely expectations are for slowing pace of expansion at 0.3% following 0.8% in the first quarter of the year.



Other than the critical GDP data, the focus will also be on the scheduled meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy to discuss the worsening crisis in the euro area which markets will track closely and increase the volatility.



From the United States the Housing Starts for July is due at 12:30 GMT which is expected with 3.3% drop to 608 thousand from 629 thousand.



At 12:30 GMT, Canada will release the manufacturing sales index for June, where it’s expected to drop by 0.5%, compared with the prior drop of 0.8% back in May.



At 13:15 GMT, the Industrial Production for July is expected with 0.5% rise following 0.2% while the Capacity Utilization to rise marginally to 76.9% from 76.7%.



Wednesday August 17:

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. July Producer Price Index is due and expected to rebound with 0.1% rise on the month following 0.4% drop. Core annual PPI is expected at 2.3% following 2.4%.



At 14:30 GMT, the EIA report for crude oil inventories will be released for the week ending August 12, where last week crude oil inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels.



Thursday August 18:

The United States at 12:30 GMT will continue with inflation data and the Consumer Price Index for July which is expected with 0.2% rise following 0.2% drop to an annual 3.3% from 3.6%. Core CPI inflation is expected with 0.2% rise in July to an annual 1.7%.



Also at 12:30 GMT the weekly jobless claims are due after last week’s unexpected decline to 395 thousand.



The busy U.S. day will continue with the leading indicator for July at 14:00 GMT and is expected to ease to 0.2% following 0.3%.



Existing home sales for July are also due at 14:00 GMT and expected with 2.7% rebound to 4.90 million from 4.77 million.



Friday August 19: No economic data is scheduled for release from the United States. (source ; CommoditiesMansion.com )