AUD/USD prediction for week july 25 2011

AUD/USD prediction for week july 25 2011 : AUD/USD broke out of near term range last week and rose to as high as 1.0874. Rise from 1.0390 has resumed and should be target a test on 1.1011 resistance this week. Overall outlook remain unchanged. we're still favoring the case that correction pattern from 1.1011 is finished with three waves down to 1.0390 already and rise from there is tentatively treated as up trend resumption.

Break of 1.1011 will confirm and target 61.8% projection 0.9703 to 1.1011 at 1.0390 at 1.1198 next. On the downside, below 1.0774 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained well above 1.0524 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. Such up trend should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 on resumption. On the downside, Break of 1.0182 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Or we'll stay bullish in AUD/USD.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. AUD/USD is staring to show loss of upside momentum with weekly MACD crossed below signal line and there is possibility of bearish divergence condition too. Nevertheless we'd still prefer to see at least sustained trading below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0055) before considering long term reversal.