stock market prediction week july 11 201, Fundamental analysis

stock market prediction week july 11 201, Fundamental analysis : The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are all in strong uptrends while the Nasdaq is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq slightly lagging behind the other major indices makes perfect sense when you consider that the Stock Trader's Almanac reads, "July is the best month of the third quarter except for the Nasdaq."

Just looking at the major indices, the bulls have an advantage over the bears going into trading next week starting July 11, 2011. Now let's look at some market internals.

The TICK is having the anticipated swing move down as it closed Friday near -126. It's between the +600 and -600 range so it's not really helpful this week in regards to gauging institutional investors sentiment. Nevertheless, the last swing move up was over 1,000 so unless this swing move down ends up with a -1,000 reading or lower, institutional investors are still bullish on this stock market.

The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average is 69%. Anything over 50% shows a bullish bias by market participants. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 200 day moving average is also 69%. Again we have a bullish bias.

The VIX is within a strong downtrend. This means that PUT buying or hedging is very low which favors my bullish profit thesis that the bulls have the advantage going into trading next week.

So market internals support my profit thesis that the bulls have an advantage over bears going into trading next week.

XLF is in an uptrend due to the season Summer Rally.

My newest pick which I bought for my trading account is UGL, the Ultra Gold play. UGL is within a weak uptrend. The end of July is a good time to buy gold and silver stocks for the seasonal gold and silver rally play which comes in August and lasts until December. I'm jumping a little early this year on the gamble that the seasonal rally in gold and silver stocks is coming a little earlier this year.

Looking at our inflation indicators, DBA is within a weak downtrend. DBO has a sidelines rating. You get people talking about inflation and hyperinflation and they don't know what they are even saying. Follow my logic here. The threat of inflation is gone for now. Inflation is a threat when the economy is strong. You don't have to worry about inflation until the economy is red hot and the Fed has to step in and raise interest rates to cool it off and slow things down. That's an inflationary environment when gold really soars. We're not where near that scenario today. The more bad economic news you read and the threat of a double drip recession in economic reports, these things are de-inflationary.

Inflation has actually dropped since March of this year on a weakening economy. Don't let gold bugs and groups like InflationUSA, Hyperinflation, and the National Inflation Association fool you. Gold bugs are intellectual lightweights when it comes to having the mental capacity to analyze the economy. I like to challenge these inflation fools head on and ask them what they mean by the growing threat of inflation when food prices are in a weak downtrend and energy has taken a big hit also. Usually you'll get a stupid response that goes something like, "Well, their just printing U.S. dollars and their diluting the dollar." The M2 or the money supply is a completely different subject than inflation or hyperinflation. When you talk about increasing the money supply you're talking about devaluing the dollar and not inflation. Don't mix the two.

I did a report on the CRB index several years ago and how it's predicted every inflationary cycle since 1967. The CRB index has a sidelines rating. The CRB index shows that in May, the threat of inflation dropped off and came to an end.

GDX and GDXJ both are in uptrends and still support the thesis that the seasonal gold and silver rally may come early this year.

$Gold is in a weak uptrend and $Silver is in an uptrend. The precious metals support the thesis that the seasonal rally in gold and silver may come earlier this year.

The U.S. dollar is still within a weak downtrend.

It totally sucks that unleaded gas is going back up again. If nothing changes, gas at the pump in my area, Fresno, California, will be back over $4 within 2 to 3 weeks time.

Fundamental analysis reports that moved the market last week was Friday's Employment Situation report.

The Employment Situation report was abysmal. We have had two months in a row of essentially no growth. Nonfarm payroll employment in June slowed to a crawl with an 18,000 gain, following a revised 25,000 rise in May, and revised 217,000 in April. The market median forecast was for a 105,000 boost. Also, the April and May revisions were down net 44,000. Once again, the government sector held down payroll numbers as private nonfarm payrolls out paced the total with an increase of 57,000 in June, following a 73,000 advance in May. Analysts had projected a 125,000 gain in June.

Fundamental analysis reports that have the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 = International Trade
Thursday, July 14, 2011 = Producer Price Index, and Retail Sales
Friday, July 15, 2011 = Consumer Price Index, and Industrial Production
Source ; http://www.guerillastocktrading.com/stock-market/stock-market-forecast-for-week-of-july-11-2011/

Tag : stock market forecast july 11 2011,stock market prediction Tuesday, July 12, 2011, stock market prediction Thursday, July 14, 2011, stock market prediction Friday, July 15, 2011, share market prediction july 11 2011.